Full marks to Labour's Jude Robinson for telling the bigwigs some uncomfortable truths when she addressed her party conference. Jude said Labour's dismal showing in the South West, and in Cornwall in particular, was not helped by the reluctance of Cabinet members to campaign here. Jude didn't name him, but we all know who she meant (Lord Mandelson) when she criticised senior Labour figures for flirting with the idea of anti-Tory tactical voting.
Labour now has a new leader and, having just about drawn level with the Conservatives without a leader, can expect to move ahead in the next few months - particularly after October's comprehensive spending review and a new wave of cuts to public services. Opinion polls and general elections are, of course, very different things.
The latest YouGov poll, taken before Ed Miliband's election on Saturday, had the Conservatives on 41, Labour on 37 and the Liberal Democrats on 13. Another YouGov poll, taken two days earlier, had the Conservatives and Labour both on 39.
However, according to the Electoral Calculus website, even these polling figures would not be enough to return Jude's Camborne & Redruth constituency to Labour: EC forecasts a comfortable Conservative victory in Camborne & Redruth with 41%, Liberal Democrats down 10 to 28% and Labour up 8 to 24%. Others are down 2 to 7%.
The Electoral Calculus site nevertheless now rates Labour's chances of winning Camborne & Redruth as slightly bettter than the Lib Dems (15% to 13%.) Chances of the Conservatives holding the seat: 72%.
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